Tamil Nadu Election Opinion Polls 2026

Tamil Nadu Opinion Polls 2026: Latest Insights and Observations   

• The exit of K A Sengottaiyan to Tamizhaga Vetri Kazhagam, along with revived coordination between O Panneerselvam and T T V Dhinakaran, has opened space for a possible alternative bloc outside the two major alliances.
• Within the AIADMK structure, the removal of Sengottaiyan by Edappadi K Palaniswami strengthened his organisational grip but revealed internal dissatisfaction that could shape future calculations.
• The alliance of AIADMK bloc briefly captured more attention after the Karur rally stampede, portraying it as a governance lapse and attempting to pull TVK into the narrative.
• Even with this momentary shift, TVK still leads both the AIADMK bloc and the DMK bloc in Google Trends, showing consistent online momentum.
• Anti incumbency stands at 41 percent compared to 31 percent pro incumbency, creating a 10 point negative mood against the DMK government.
• Almost 6 in 10 voters prefer replacing their current MLA, suggesting high churn in the 2026 candidate cycle.
• Among voters aged 25 to 34, more than 50 percent want change, making jobs and exam reform major priorities.
• Trust levels are currently 37 percent for the DMK plus alliance, 32 percent for the AIADMK plus alliance and 12 percent for TVK, shaping a three axis contest.
• Earlier surveys place TVK at around 23 percent if contesting alone, showing a ceiling effect but reaffirming the rising appeal of Vijay.
• Perception of the AIADMK plus BJP alliance remains split, with 42 percent calling it effective and 35 percent calling it unproductive.
• Identity driven issues including Tamil pride, NEET, Hindi imposition and delimitation influence one third of voters across the state.
• Women show 41 percent support for the DMK compared to 33 percent among men, while male anti incumbency stands at 34 percent, especially in urban regions.
• The NDA’s win in Bihar has pushed the Bharatiya Janata Party to reposition in Tamil Nadu, though regional voting behavior limits direct impact.